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Perceived and Actual Breast Cancer Risk

Optimistic and Pessimistic Biases

Mallinckrodt Institute of Radiology, Washington University School of Medicine, St Louis, Missouri, USA

Matthew W. Kreuter

Health Communications Research Laboratory, School of Public Health, Saint Louis University, St Louis, Missouri, USA

Sarah Kobrin

Health Communications Research Laboratory, University of North Carolina School of Public Health, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA

Victor J. Strecher

Director of Cancer Prevention and Control, University of Michigan Comprehensive Cancer Center, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA

Perceived risk can influence health behaviors. Studies using various populations and breast cancer risk bias assessment methods have identified both risk over- and underestimation. Among 1803 women in primary care settings, 47 percent were at average epidemiologic risk (Gail calculated relative risk ±50 percent of age-adjusted population average) and 55 percent perceived themselves to be at average risk (compared to same-age others) but there were mismatches or 'biases': 31 percent underestimated personal risk; 26 percent overestimated. Multiple logistic regression revealed that smokers were more likely to overestimate risk. Overestimation decreased with more education. Mammography use did not independently predict perception bias but, among never-screened women aged over 40 years, those contemplating mammograms were most likely to overestimate risk; precontemplators were most likely to underestimate. Implications for research and intervention are discussed.

Key Words: bias • breast cancer • perception, risk

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